7/10/2026, 5:28:02 PM
det: 43f6c07b-7c81-4b08-a3d7-099c2ab06a29
sha256: 5564f4a5e735…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
WATCHTOWER 2.0 — BASELINE LEARNINGCIVILIAN-LED · AI-ASSISTED · MATH-CHOSEN
Loading convergence event…
WTI · quiet-math.wti.v1 · 23,813 scored events · Lens: All counties
The Threat Index.
Every detection receives a Watchtower Threat Index score and a tier 1–5 classification. Method is open. Source data is public. Highest-scoring events surface here first.
County lens — scores below are filtered to this airspace
All counties · 23813Kern · 892Tulare · 273Kings · 111Fresno · 1030San Bernardino · 3557Other (LA basin etc.) · 17950
Why this matters: LA-basin traffic volume is ~10× Kern's. A single regional ranking buries Kern signals under LA noise. The county lens scores each event against the airspace it actually occurred in.
Method
quiet-math.wti.v1
Scored events
23,813
Cryptographically hashed
100%
All 23,813 records · SHA-256 + Merkle chain
Per-county baselines · last 48h
What "normal" looks like — county by county
Each county learns its own baseline. An aircraft at 800 ft over Kern is anomalous because Kern's normal is high-altitude transit — even if the same altitude would be unremarkable over the LA basin.
| County | Samples (48h) | Unique aircraft | Median altitude | 10th %ile altitude | Median speed | Night % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kern | 9,524 | 1,798 | 12,675 ft | 1,900 ft | 223.6 kts | 34.7% |
| Tulare | 2,714 | 841 | 14,075 ft | 2,050 ft | 253.3 kts | 36% |
| Kings | 1,430 | 751 | 29,000 ft | 3,195 ft | 395.1 kts | 40.5% |
| Fresno | 4,750 | 1,541 | 12,500 ft | 1,125 ft | 256.3 kts | 37.3% |
| San Bernardino | 10,513 | 2,574 | 11,725 ft | 2,100 ft | 289.7 kts | 35.7% |
| Other | 40,197 | 10,098 | 16,401 ft | 3,400 ft | 264.5 kts | 37.9% |
Baselines refresh on every page load from the last 48 hours of detections. Same math for every county.
How a WTI score is built
Each score is a weighted sum of five public-data components: altitude (vs. CFR floor), temporal pattern (vs. 48-hour baseline), convergence (multi-aircraft proximity), shell-network linkage (public corporate filings), and repeat frequency. The weights below ship with every row — no hidden parameters.
altitude ×35%temporal ×20%convergence ×12%shell ×18%repeat ×15%
Purpose
Purpose
The Watchtower Threat Index (WTI) ranks flight events by statistical abnormality and regulatory risk — not intent.
WTI is a signal for journalists, attorneys, and regulators. A high score means a detection deviates sharply from the 48-hour baseline and/or implicates a public regulation. It is not, and never will be, an accusation against any individual.
Component glossary — plain language
Altitude
Deviation from the FAA minimum safe altitude (14 CFR § 91.119) at the observed location.
Temporal
How unusual the timing is compared to the rolling 48-hour baseline for the same airspace.
Convergence
Proximity to other aircraft in space and time — multi-aircraft clustering and synchronized passes.
Shell
Corporate opacity score from public FAA registry + state filings (shell-network linkage).
Repeat
Frequency of similar events by the same aircraft within the observation window.
Why these weights?
- Altitude (35%) — highest regulatory risk; tied directly to 14 CFR § 91.119 minimum safe altitudes.
- Repeat (25%) — strongest indicator of intentional pattern vs. one-off anomaly.
- Temporal (20%) — deviation from the 48-hour baseline; isolates events that break a stable norm.
- Convergence (12%) — multi-aircraft clustering; rules out coincidence when two aircraft synchronize.
- Shell (8%) — public-record opacity weighting; lowest because it is a context signal, not a flight behavior.
Weights ship with every row under components.weights — fully reproducible.
How to reproduce a score
Worked example — WTI = Σ(component × weight)
altitude 100 × 0.35 = 35.00
temporal 100 × 0.20 = 20.00
convergence 26 × 0.12 = 3.12
shell 100 × 0.08 = 8.00
repeat 100 × 0.25 = 25.00
──────
WTI = 91.12Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score even if the method later evolves.
Tier meaning
| Tier | Meaning | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| T4 | Critical statistical abnormality | Flag for legal / regulatory review |
| T3 | High abnormality | Flag for analyst review |
| T2 | Elevated | Monitor |
| T1 | Moderate | No action — context only |
| T0 | Low | Baseline |
Why convergence matters
Convergence captures the pattern that two or more aircraft in the same airspace band, at the same time, on coordinated tracks, is not coincidence — it is operational coordination. The metric weighs four factors:
- Multi-aircraft spatial proximity within a defined radius.
- Synchronized timing windows (entries and exits inside a few minutes).
- Shared altitude bands suggesting deconfliction between operators.
- Track clustering — parallel or orbital patterns over the same ground point.
Note on identical scores
Many top-ranked events share the exact same WTI (for example, multiple rows at 91.12). This is expected: when aircraft share the same altitude deviation, timing band, and repeat pattern, the weighted sum collapses to the same value. Identical scores are a feature of the method, not a bug — they make repeat behavior visible at a glance.
What WTI is NOT
- Not a claim of criminal intent.
- Not a claim of surveillance intent against any individual.
- Not a claim of wrongdoing by any pilot, operator, or agency.
- Not a prediction of future behavior.
WTI is a statistical abnormality score computed from public ADS-B and FAA registry data. It is a signal for review by humans with legal authority — nothing more.
Distribution by tier
Tier 4
23,782
CRITICAL
Tier 3
31
HIGH
Top 25 by WTI score — with score breakdown
7/10/2026, 5:16:02 PM
det: ca778ec1-48c9-45bb-b0a1-9bee5d7f4101
sha256: 095518402dd2…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/10/2026, 3:30:21 PM
det: 325d0a1c-4a61-40c4-9ceb-63c324372176
sha256: 946a937aff21…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SAN LUIS OBISPO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/10/2026, 4:20:02 AM
det: 10f1a0b8-4620-4ab3-ab7a-fc0bebe43a0a
sha256: cfe33b5b3979…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SAN BERNARDINO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/10/2026, 12:28:02 AM
det: 4c60cbf0-1f52-49f6-8e2c-73a5b2a67ce9
sha256: 80485814f3be…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 11:08:50 PM
det: 325f37f3-11cc-4a64-900d-9e6604ae81ec
sha256: dbb904227909…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 8:32:37 PM
det: ffa2109f-b94a-4622-b8b0-0a9cbb3f0c08
sha256: 04f77fc0e71b…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SANTA BARBARA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 8:08:41 PM
det: 3834b309-558c-406a-94dc-583c96425b51
sha256: bf2adc6efe55…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SANTA BARBARA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 8:06:03 PM
det: 24653dd4-8681-406a-a6b1-81e5a8407cf6
sha256: 3a96feea48b5…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00OTHER
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 7:44:02 PM
det: f4d41d32-47cd-4e08-be7b-1d7c4a28e530
sha256: acb9a3cefaa8…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SAN BERNARDINO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 7:22:02 PM
det: c7d257ca-b282-4eba-bc23-1584a37829d7
sha256: 695695464494…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SANTA BARBARA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 6:58:02 PM
det: 7499c591-d2a8-4f94-bc83-9de1a88d383f
sha256: 8d63fc29791e…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 6:46:02 PM
det: 2857690f-aa6e-4bc1-bec3-fd70725beff1
sha256: e1fd42455d5c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 6:10:02 PM
det: eefd6480-a664-4e57-9f72-8add8a687001
sha256: eb14c9b627d8…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 5:50:42 PM
det: aec4cb05-2ab8-4685-83cc-53be7c292e0b
sha256: 97d3c8960c9c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00VENTURA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 5:08:02 PM
det: fcaa653e-6d75-43e8-aa7c-50148ed29d2d
sha256: c99f9a37bdf1…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00FRESNO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 4:22:41 PM
det: c9888e6b-486c-402b-be7f-3bf26d19080a
sha256: 6956bffae304…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00INYO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 3:14:28 PM
det: dc94fdb1-d94e-4db9-8989-6c340b873b4d
sha256: 4852c83d0311…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SAN BERNARDINO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 1:54:02 PM
det: 53ca3aa9-4c91-46db-8206-6ddb7edd7a73
sha256: 119548fa7ff0…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00FRESNO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 3:22:01 AM
det: 678e0a94-524f-494e-9eac-1448f557bd06
sha256: 8d3c1e08524c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SAN BERNARDINO
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 3:10:02 AM
det: 72b998cf-8ed7-4967-8df2-77187309333b
sha256: 343e547412b6…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SANTA BARBARA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/9/2026, 1:58:01 AM
det: 5992ce22-b63a-47e1-a10a-f781f24a7598
sha256: 609567c19140…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00VENTURA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/8/2026, 10:28:02 PM
det: da4e7299-227b-4392-b488-a944762e83bc
sha256: 827969ec16ed…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/8/2026, 10:28:02 PM
det: 5e1288d5-8c8f-4628-b218-490a2fe8dda8
sha256: 78cb7b71a3e5…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00LOS ANGELES
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/8/2026, 9:40:02 PM
det: a0581017-2e14-4b9e-b083-577e67a8f60b
sha256: 34a7a7cdf56f…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00SANTA BARBARA
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
Source: anomaly_events (quiet-math). WTI = anomaly_score × 100; tier bands 25 / 50 / 75. Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score.