10/6/2026, 6:31:49 AM
det: 5dcca2bf-14d6-44ce-98a6-9b2428bce040
sha256: 65aee2334d02…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
WATCHTOWER 2.0 — BASELINE LEARNINGCIVILIAN-LED · AI-ASSISTED · MATH-CHOSEN
Loading convergence event…
WTI · quiet-math.wti.v1 · 102,778 scored events · Lens: Kern
The Threat Index.
Every detection receives a Watchtower Threat Index score and a tier 1–5 classification. Method is open. Source data is public. Highest-scoring events surface here first.
County lens — scores below are filtered to this airspace
All counties · 721691Kern · 102778Tulare · 16622Kings · 6664Fresno · 35766San Bernardino · 91923Other (LA basin etc.) · 467938
Why this matters: LA-basin traffic volume is ~10× Kern's. A single regional ranking buries Kern signals under LA noise. The county lens scores each event against the airspace it actually occurred in.
Method
quiet-math.wti.v1
Scored events
102,778
Cryptographically hashed
100%
All 102,778 records · SHA-256 + Merkle chain
Per-county baselines · last 48h
What "normal" looks like — county by county
Each county learns its own baseline. An aircraft at 800 ft over Kern is anomalous because Kern's normal is high-altitude transit — even if the same altitude would be unremarkable over the LA basin.
| County | Samples (48h) | Unique aircraft | Median altitude | 10th %ile altitude | Median speed | Night % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kern | 14,719 | 1,170 | 29,000 ft | 1,775 ft | 423 kts | 44.6% |
| Tulare | 3,003 | 546 | 12,200 ft | 1,805 ft | 256.5 kts | 37.8% |
| Kings | 1,159 | 497 | 31,000 ft | 3,900 ft | 423.1 kts | 39.9% |
| Fresno | 3,241 | 1,039 | 9,200 ft | 1,225 ft | 197 kts | 30.7% |
| San Bernardino | 6,735 | 1,609 | 12,525 ft | 2,350 ft | 296.7 kts | 29% |
| Other | 26,178 | 6,608 | 18,560.4 ft | 3,761.3 ft | 290.7 kts | 28.6% |
Baselines refresh on every page load from the last 48 hours of detections. Same math for every county.
How a WTI score is built
Each score is a weighted sum of five public-data components: altitude (vs. CFR floor), temporal pattern (vs. 48-hour baseline), convergence (multi-aircraft proximity), shell-network linkage (public corporate filings), and repeat frequency. The weights below ship with every row — no hidden parameters.
altitude ×35%temporal ×20%convergence ×12%shell ×18%repeat ×15%
Purpose
Purpose
The Watchtower Threat Index (WTI) ranks flight events by statistical abnormality and regulatory risk — not intent.
WTI is a signal for journalists, attorneys, and regulators. A high score means a detection deviates sharply from the 48-hour baseline and/or implicates a public regulation. It is not, and never will be, an accusation against any individual.
Component glossary — plain language
Altitude
Deviation from the FAA minimum safe altitude (14 CFR § 91.119) at the observed location.
Temporal
How unusual the timing is compared to the rolling 48-hour baseline for the same airspace.
Convergence
Proximity to other aircraft in space and time — multi-aircraft clustering and synchronized passes.
Shell
Corporate opacity score from public FAA registry + state filings (shell-network linkage).
Repeat
Frequency of similar events by the same aircraft within the observation window.
Why these weights?
- Altitude (35%) — highest regulatory risk; tied directly to 14 CFR § 91.119 minimum safe altitudes.
- Repeat (25%) — strongest indicator of intentional pattern vs. one-off anomaly.
- Temporal (20%) — deviation from the 48-hour baseline; isolates events that break a stable norm.
- Convergence (12%) — multi-aircraft clustering; rules out coincidence when two aircraft synchronize.
- Shell (8%) — public-record opacity weighting; lowest because it is a context signal, not a flight behavior.
Weights ship with every row under components.weights — fully reproducible.
How to reproduce a score
Worked example — WTI = Σ(component × weight)
altitude 100 × 0.35 = 35.00
temporal 100 × 0.20 = 20.00
convergence 26 × 0.12 = 3.12
shell 100 × 0.08 = 8.00
repeat 100 × 0.25 = 25.00
──────
WTI = 91.12Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score even if the method later evolves.
Tier meaning
| Tier | Meaning | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| T4 | Critical statistical abnormality | Flag for legal / regulatory review |
| T3 | High abnormality | Flag for analyst review |
| T2 | Elevated | Monitor |
| T1 | Moderate | No action — context only |
| T0 | Low | Baseline |
Why convergence matters
Convergence captures the pattern that two or more aircraft in the same airspace band, at the same time, on coordinated tracks, is not coincidence — it is operational coordination. The metric weighs four factors:
- Multi-aircraft spatial proximity within a defined radius.
- Synchronized timing windows (entries and exits inside a few minutes).
- Shared altitude bands suggesting deconfliction between operators.
- Track clustering — parallel or orbital patterns over the same ground point.
Note on identical scores
Many top-ranked events share the exact same WTI (for example, multiple rows at 91.12). This is expected: when aircraft share the same altitude deviation, timing band, and repeat pattern, the weighted sum collapses to the same value. Identical scores are a feature of the method, not a bug — they make repeat behavior visible at a glance.
What WTI is NOT
- Not a claim of criminal intent.
- Not a claim of surveillance intent against any individual.
- Not a claim of wrongdoing by any pilot, operator, or agency.
- Not a prediction of future behavior.
WTI is a statistical abnormality score computed from public ADS-B and FAA registry data. It is a signal for review by humans with legal authority — nothing more.
Distribution by tier
Tier 4
102,768
CRITICAL
Tier 3
7
HIGH
Tier 2
1
MEDIUM
Tier 1
2
LOW
Top 25 by WTI score — with score breakdown
Score composition · mean across top 25
Which components are driving the top of the index right now. Each bar is the average value (0–100) of that component across the highest-scoring events. Weights ship with every row so any third party can reproduce.
altitude0
temporal0
convergence0
shell0
repeat0
10/6/2026, 6:31:48 AM
det: d1dc9acb-d64e-45c7-b93b-9ce7413be01d
sha256: 0598ecc1a42c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/6/2026, 5:39:58 AM
det: f6bcbbf1-e762-4bbc-b732-561d0f874aa8
sha256: 61c6320be205…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/6/2026, 5:17:25 AM
det: 09b0641f-a53f-4238-8041-36b244731869
sha256: 1600efec0f56…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/6/2026, 5:04:52 AM
det: 790dfae6-b769-49f4-a57a-e72333c227af
sha256: 2b8996e35e72…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/6/2026, 5:00:57 AM
det: f18ebf96-0f70-4dd2-9ee9-ff32268d6593
sha256: b61391f58dfb…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 6:46:47 AM
det: 8e47f761-e79d-41f5-aab6-01752253d03b
sha256: 602d1776789d…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 6:38:44 AM
det: b5e64c4f-e359-4a92-bc6e-f678a2eb1792
sha256: 474d5335531e…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 6:22:38 AM
det: 70f3dec6-e12e-4b18-9ed6-ba3d268b8143
sha256: 1028d5dd11e0…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 5:34:24 AM
det: 7884ee0f-2782-4cf5-8c9f-dab0a03d9a62
sha256: 30edcbfaa234…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 5:26:21 AM
det: 2c2cafc7-a63a-4e1a-9f9c-13e035791d65
sha256: 338b5981433b…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 4:46:11 AM
det: ec9fc78d-a82f-48d2-9848-df0f6c470c06
sha256: eabada714a5e…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 4:38:08 AM
det: d9d40720-6454-4c20-8c28-f2f1432740bc
sha256: 20a2d8b3eec1…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 4:14:01 AM
det: 8138eb73-ad80-47cf-8524-02626b0ea920
sha256: f06ed6a3ae74…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 2:37:31 AM
det: e103997b-9a5e-4c45-afad-161b05b346f7
sha256: 0f1017e9e48f…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 1:32:54 AM
det: 40d2045e-f0d8-4a67-a06a-50786673bd2e
sha256: c5eabe9c35c1…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 1:16:44 AM
det: f78e8e53-7abd-4cf1-b25c-4d91d41c44d2
sha256: 01b710ade5ab…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 1:08:39 AM
det: c81fa637-0f92-4239-9db3-72cfcb13328b
sha256: 85c41aabe1a2…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 1:08:39 AM
det: 28bdd3d8-7caf-45fa-9f9d-b12323fff4f6
sha256: a1d0df84c56c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 12:36:21 AM
det: 3406780f-735e-492f-9b12-bbdb991ba8db
sha256: 40e7bfa221d5…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 10:10:58 PM
det: b487b8ef-bee9-4d5f-b7ff-1583453fb69d
sha256: 5e3086345f06…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 9:22:31 PM
det: 9bb62e68-df76-4eec-a1e6-a3ecba39dd71
sha256: ba3eee4a09ad…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 9:14:22 PM
det: 8c574c53-7fba-4074-b244-02c7642bf011
sha256: e59791af881c…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 8:25:13 PM
det: 2efb10ac-c962-487d-ac3c-255b1ce57913
sha256: 23177e03c0ee…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 7:27:55 PM
det: 10e0909f-8268-40bf-9d21-8c3d010a6854
sha256: 2f7f9570978e…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KERN
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
Source: anomaly_events (quiet-math). WTI = anomaly_score × 100; tier bands 25 / 50 / 75. Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score.