10/6/2026, 5:06:24 AM
det: 85bd4817-c3b1-4959-b085-8882f171787a
sha256: 5c480e75f60a…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
WATCHTOWER 2.0 — BASELINE LEARNINGCIVILIAN-LED · AI-ASSISTED · MATH-CHOSEN
Loading convergence event…
WTI · quiet-math.wti.v1 · 6,664 scored events · Lens: Kings
The Threat Index.
Every detection receives a Watchtower Threat Index score and a tier 1–5 classification. Method is open. Source data is public. Highest-scoring events surface here first.
County lens — scores below are filtered to this airspace
All counties · 721691Kern · 102778Tulare · 16622Kings · 6664Fresno · 35766San Bernardino · 91923Other (LA basin etc.) · 467938
Why this matters: LA-basin traffic volume is ~10× Kern's. A single regional ranking buries Kern signals under LA noise. The county lens scores each event against the airspace it actually occurred in.
Method
quiet-math.wti.v1
Scored events
6,664
Cryptographically hashed
100%
All 6,664 records · SHA-256 + Merkle chain
Per-county baselines · last 48h
What "normal" looks like — county by county
Each county learns its own baseline. An aircraft at 800 ft over Kern is anomalous because Kern's normal is high-altitude transit — even if the same altitude would be unremarkable over the LA basin.
| County | Samples (48h) | Unique aircraft | Median altitude | 10th %ile altitude | Median speed | Night % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kern | 14,702 | 1,170 | 29,000 ft | 1,775 ft | 423 kts | 44.5% |
| Tulare | 3,003 | 546 | 12,200 ft | 1,805 ft | 256.5 kts | 37.8% |
| Kings | 1,159 | 497 | 31,000 ft | 3,900 ft | 423.1 kts | 39.9% |
| Fresno | 3,241 | 1,039 | 9,200 ft | 1,225 ft | 197 kts | 30.7% |
| San Bernardino | 6,735 | 1,609 | 12,525 ft | 2,350 ft | 296.7 kts | 29% |
| Other | 26,172 | 6,607 | 18,560.4 ft | 3,760.2 ft | 290.7 kts | 28.6% |
Baselines refresh on every page load from the last 48 hours of detections. Same math for every county.
How a WTI score is built
Each score is a weighted sum of five public-data components: altitude (vs. CFR floor), temporal pattern (vs. 48-hour baseline), convergence (multi-aircraft proximity), shell-network linkage (public corporate filings), and repeat frequency. The weights below ship with every row — no hidden parameters.
altitude ×35%temporal ×20%convergence ×12%shell ×18%repeat ×15%
Purpose
Purpose
The Watchtower Threat Index (WTI) ranks flight events by statistical abnormality and regulatory risk — not intent.
WTI is a signal for journalists, attorneys, and regulators. A high score means a detection deviates sharply from the 48-hour baseline and/or implicates a public regulation. It is not, and never will be, an accusation against any individual.
Component glossary — plain language
Altitude
Deviation from the FAA minimum safe altitude (14 CFR § 91.119) at the observed location.
Temporal
How unusual the timing is compared to the rolling 48-hour baseline for the same airspace.
Convergence
Proximity to other aircraft in space and time — multi-aircraft clustering and synchronized passes.
Shell
Corporate opacity score from public FAA registry + state filings (shell-network linkage).
Repeat
Frequency of similar events by the same aircraft within the observation window.
Why these weights?
- Altitude (35%) — highest regulatory risk; tied directly to 14 CFR § 91.119 minimum safe altitudes.
- Repeat (25%) — strongest indicator of intentional pattern vs. one-off anomaly.
- Temporal (20%) — deviation from the 48-hour baseline; isolates events that break a stable norm.
- Convergence (12%) — multi-aircraft clustering; rules out coincidence when two aircraft synchronize.
- Shell (8%) — public-record opacity weighting; lowest because it is a context signal, not a flight behavior.
Weights ship with every row under components.weights — fully reproducible.
How to reproduce a score
Worked example — WTI = Σ(component × weight)
altitude 100 × 0.35 = 35.00
temporal 100 × 0.20 = 20.00
convergence 26 × 0.12 = 3.12
shell 100 × 0.08 = 8.00
repeat 100 × 0.25 = 25.00
──────
WTI = 91.12Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score even if the method later evolves.
Tier meaning
| Tier | Meaning | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| T4 | Critical statistical abnormality | Flag for legal / regulatory review |
| T3 | High abnormality | Flag for analyst review |
| T2 | Elevated | Monitor |
| T1 | Moderate | No action — context only |
| T0 | Low | Baseline |
Why convergence matters
Convergence captures the pattern that two or more aircraft in the same airspace band, at the same time, on coordinated tracks, is not coincidence — it is operational coordination. The metric weighs four factors:
- Multi-aircraft spatial proximity within a defined radius.
- Synchronized timing windows (entries and exits inside a few minutes).
- Shared altitude bands suggesting deconfliction between operators.
- Track clustering — parallel or orbital patterns over the same ground point.
Note on identical scores
Many top-ranked events share the exact same WTI (for example, multiple rows at 91.12). This is expected: when aircraft share the same altitude deviation, timing band, and repeat pattern, the weighted sum collapses to the same value. Identical scores are a feature of the method, not a bug — they make repeat behavior visible at a glance.
What WTI is NOT
- Not a claim of criminal intent.
- Not a claim of surveillance intent against any individual.
- Not a claim of wrongdoing by any pilot, operator, or agency.
- Not a prediction of future behavior.
WTI is a statistical abnormality score computed from public ADS-B and FAA registry data. It is a signal for review by humans with legal authority — nothing more.
Distribution by tier
Tier 4
6,663
CRITICAL
Tier 2
1
MEDIUM
Top 25 by WTI score — with score breakdown
Score composition · mean across top 25
Which components are driving the top of the index right now. Each bar is the average value (0–100) of that component across the highest-scoring events. Weights ship with every row so any third party can reproduce.
altitude0
temporal0
convergence0
shell0
repeat0
10/4/2026, 1:41:00 AM
det: 8c463718-751e-490f-ab49-5c8b1ae67c60
sha256: 733ee53d1e07…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/4/2026, 12:52:31 AM
det: 105a1695-b920-4df6-b943-1a52d5cde7a4
sha256: 447d38ceb1cc…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 6:05:35 PM
det: 08263156-a941-4dcc-b144-546bfcf977a7
sha256: c4424a228505…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 5:00:01 PM
det: d53d0ff1-bc51-4c48-ae58-fcf420ee8399
sha256: 7117a3eece87…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/3/2026, 4:02:15 PM
det: 09f36e2b-9824-45c2-b215-2f858aced0c4
sha256: 7643a9e3438e…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 1:36:44 PM
det: 669ad902-4c99-4ff1-9f25-09d12cce8dd5
sha256: 04a5d26fdb7a…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/3/2026, 5:02:33 AM
det: a17b08b7-b150-4b49-bd4b-a84e6fa9c6be
sha256: 1c44f94d7fe3…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/4/2026, 2:39:17 AM
det: 13f69ac2-d8b2-4a5b-a6bf-5ea815eb8eb3
sha256: 7e6144dc249a…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
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7/19/2026, 5:16:36 PM
det: 69cb10bd-4a8d-4ba7-ba6c-95547553e366
sha256: 79998e330426…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/13/2026, 8:03:05 PM
det: b5ea8afb-30fe-4858-bc06-0a3f14d56196
sha256: f708bbce0051…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/8/2026, 3:56:03 PM
det: c7893782-e24f-498a-9f7c-c774d993ad7e
sha256: f2d27326f257…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
7/8/2026, 12:58:01 AM
det: 8aa0b608-e5ab-4b41-b5ca-cedc8b838b2d
sha256: cc0abb8eba34…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/10/2026, 12:49:49 AM
det: 5de5c2f0-1c59-4dc1-8cab-c6734ffa61e9
sha256: b6e08c688969…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/9/2026, 12:45:15 AM
det: 40ffa088-bbad-446b-88f7-a78057014786
sha256: 2f448d6ca75b…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/9/2026, 12:10:39 AM
det: 33090b3d-ed2a-4719-8073-2839668b46db
sha256: 48f01ffa625d…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/9/2026, 12:03:42 AM
det: 84c6fc96-7e3c-4c3a-8cf2-e404c36462c7
sha256: e7f2a2d87150…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
repeat—
10/8/2026, 10:39:14 PM
det: d502c0f1-ee68-4b5e-a06c-23565768e75b
sha256: 917f0158dd43…
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/8/2026, 5:07:10 PM
det: 20bea5af-da54-4a17-b361-aacd44e0bfef
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
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10/8/2026, 5:06:51 PM
det: fef8df3f-479e-4612-a95d-f48be5820e3f
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/8/2026, 5:06:29 PM
det: c2035613-f2bc-4a7e-9e77-fc0be1ee0d26
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
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convergence—
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10/8/2026, 5:05:40 PM
det: 7b0c12bf-22fa-4a04-b18a-48e4e3045b35
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
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10/8/2026, 5:05:22 PM
det: a3a88abe-b4b0-4c54-9acd-021ace349c79
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
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shell—
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10/8/2026, 5:05:07 PM
det: 8935f8d6-bc69-4ce0-9b3f-661916860f77
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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10/8/2026, 5:01:06 PM
det: 0dc46c2c-0288-4ffe-998a-ee71d147621c
T4 · CRITICALWTI 100.00KINGS
altitude—
temporal—
convergence—
shell—
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Source: anomaly_events (quiet-math). WTI = anomaly_score × 100; tier bands 25 / 50 / 75. Every row carries the method version so a third party can reproduce the score.